Demographic Transition Model

The Demographic Transition Model was created by Warren Thompson in 1929. He was a US demographer around the years of world war one to world war two. He noticed that once a country gets more advanced, development in medical care and freedom for women becomes more instated, the population starts to level out. Let me just note that time is not a factor on any other stage; for example a country could stay on stage two for an age, never advancing because of difficulties in the country.

A fifth stage was added on sometime later, when demographers started noticing a decrease in population after a sustainable amount of time on stage four.

The model shows five stages of a country. I'll explain them for you now:

1. Lets use a Example for this. Number one could be the Yanomani Tribe. The Yanomani tribe are very independent from any government or industry, they survive off the basics in the world. Their life consists of hunting, raising children and sustaining their tribe. They have no views on medical care and fall short of any real industrial or commercial work. Their population stays the same almost all the time because of large families and having a sustainable supply of food, but they do not advance in their population, because so many die with infection, illness or bad immune systems.
2. Number two, this is where medical care just begins to flow through the country and better conditions for everyone, that being said, families are still having a lot of children, but not as many are dying. This creates a huge dip in Death Rate (marked blue) and a surge in Total Population (marked red). We may look at India as an example, it contains an ever growing population and does have medical care (to some degree). India has been around for ages, and has a vastly growing industrial empire, but it cannot seem to push that money into new medical care. Some may state that India is onto stage three, but I doubt this, India has yet to advance really in medical care, nor the emancipation of women.
3. This stage is where the population will begin a change into a more free world, where women and men have almost equal opportunity. China could be an example of this, while China is the largest in population, that won't be the case soon, with India surpassing it in the coming years. Less new couples are sprouting large families; because of the strict one-child policy in China. There is also better health care coming into China each year, with the Communist country becoming more and more developed. While most country hit the third stage because of a 'natural' increase, China has a more forced way of coming into the third stage, by stopping births from rapidly exceeding deaths.
4. Four is the stage most countries in Europe are on. A basic levelling out of the birth and death rate. It takes quite a while for countries to become so civilised that freedom between men and women is equal in almost every aspect; some countries have took an age to get here, I know England has. Countries in this category have a good medical care, good enough to sustain the population and almost every birth is successful. Of course, some countries do have large families but are still in the fourth category, it just means that the families can sustain themselves and the death rate is at the same level.
5. This is the new stage that some countries are bordering on. Germany could be one of these, they have a population that continues to decrease, even though industry and commercial strives. Japan is another, not because they're retiring from having children, but because the age of medication is so good that many in Japan live to their 90's. This stage is when a population decreases. Russia could be in this stage, because they have an ever decreasing population, but their industry and lifestyle is something which is still in stage three.